Prior to the 2011 event, Burning Man tickets was a fairly uncomplicated process. Just get a ticket at any point in the process of preparing yourself, your camp, or your art project. There were no scalpers, and face value was the most you'd ever have to pay. Then, on the 24th of July 2011, it got complicated for the very first time when tickets sold out. It seems a simple enough thing, but it's not. It put hundreds of camps and art projects at risk as they discovered that essential members of their group had not yet bought their ticket. Anecdotally, I think most who were determined to go were able to find a ticket. Some weren't, and others just made the decision to take the year off and not get caught up in the ticket madness.

It created a situation where it would be necessary to make big changes to the way tickets were sold in 2012. For starters, everyone who had gotten burned or had a close call vowed to buy tickets earlier next year. So did anyone who knew someone who'd gotten burned or had a close call. And a significant number of people decided that they should try and stock up on tickets for their art project or camp. And a sellout event put Burning Man on the radar of professional (as well as amateur) scalpers.

Up to 2011, Burning Man tickets had been sold on a first-come, first-serve (FCFS) system. There are a few known problems with FCFS, most of which don't really become significant until you're dealing with a sellout event. First, a problem which has affected Burning Man for years, is server capacity. Even Ticketmaster and LiveNation have problems keeping up with demand during the on-sales of popular events, and when demand outstrips server capacity you get anything ranging from kickouts (where someone gets kicked out of the queue and has to start over) to full blown server crashes (where the whole queue gets dumped). The ticketing vendor had dramatically increased their capacity, but that still doesn't guarantee that there wouldn't be a problem (again, even the biggest ticketing vendors in the business have problems with events that have on-sale date demand over 10K or so transactions). Second is a smaller issue, that a FCFS system gives an unfair advantage to those who have better internet connections and are able to camp in front of their computers when tickets go on sale. That's mostly a nuisance when there are enough for everybody, as the worst that could happen is that you miss out on a lower tier ticket. Once it's a sellout event, connection speed could mean the difference between getting a ticket and not. Third (and most important in my opinion), a FCFS system provides no protection from automated ticket buying software. In my role as ePlaya administrator, I know full well the impact of human-driven automated bot software. Their software is easily trained to use the site, and a single human is able to sit back and enter Captcha codes while the software does its thing. This was never a problem for Burning Man before, because until the event had shown the capacity to sell out, it was never an event that showed up on the radar of the professional scalper. Now that the event has sold out, that is a very significant issue. Had Burning Man 'let it ride' and gone with a first-come, first-serve system in 2012 I believe the entire event would have sold out within hours (if not within minutes) with a significant chunk of the ticket supply in the hands of scalpers. Camps would still be short the majority of the tickets they needed, except there would be no more tickets coming at a later date (as opposed to the 10K tickets still remaining). And of course, people would be complaining loudly and demanding to know why Burning Man didn't take action to try and prevent it from happening.

In my experience with system design, I've found that people don't usually like change (I know, not a big shocker). Some people adapt easily, while others turn into FUDdites (people overcome by fear, uncertainty, and doubt). They may be generally intelligent, logical and balanced people, but the change (or the circumstances surrounding the change) have gotten them caught up in the FUD.

It's common stuff in the world of change management. Most of what has been happening on ePlaya falls into that category. It would be wrong for someone to just wave their hands and dismiss it all, but it would be significantly more wrong for someone to assume that the system has failed because people are having a hard time understanding or dealing with the changes.

Whether or not you've seen it from my posts on ePlaya, I do try to listen and read what people are posting. And where I feel valid concerns or questions are (hundreds so far), I work hard to relay that and try and get answers if I can. In many cases I have, though some people are just asking for things they're not going to get (detailed statistics, preferential treatment, etc). One of the challenges with event production is that everybody who's ever bought a ticket to anything thinks that they have all the expertise needed to stage their own event. And one of the challenges of complex systems is that… they're complex, and difficult for people who aren't involved in that system to grasp. Burning Man tickets didn't used to be a complex system, but as I mentioned earlier the sellout changed all that.

The fundamental problem is not the lottery - it's scarcity. There just are not enough tickets available to meet demand. The registration and drawing were intended to do exactly what they did - provide a means to block automated ticket buying software and block known scalpers and scammers (something a first-come, first-serve system could never do), and in the event that demand was greater than supply it was designed to give all registrants an opportunity to get a ticket. There was always the risk that some would attempt to game the system by getting others to register on their behalf in the hopes of increasing their chances, but personally I don't know how prevalent this problem was. There were certainly enough people bragging about it (or complaining about it) on Facebook and ePlaya before the drawing took place... enough that led Will Chase to highlight the concern in his recent post to the blog and Jack Rabbit Speaks newsletter (sign up for that here). But from the comments I'm seeing on the boards and on Facebook in the last few days, I'm not sure they got the lion's share.

Non-transferrable tickets does not seem like a viable option for a few reasons. First, you could never allow tickets to be exchangeable or transferrable (which kills both gifting and purchasing tickets for projects or camps on a tbd basis), otherwise scalpers and hoarders could simply put any name on them at the point of purchase, and transfer them at a later date. Burning Man does do non-transferrable tickets for the low income program, but that's only able to work because it's a very small number of tickets. Second, it makes for a situation that could potentially completely overwhelm the gate. Because of counterfeiting and name forging issues, it would not be as simple as the staffer at the gate eyeballing the ticket and matching it to the ID. Each ticket and ID would essentially have to be treated as a will call ticket, with everything verified with the name on file for the ticket. If the entire event went through a system like that, it would significantly increase the wait time through the gate. If the lines to get in get too long and the highway infrastructure gets too disrupted, I think we run the risk of either the event getting shut down, or the population cap being significantly reduced.

The Glastonbury argument doesn't hold much water either. First of all, their name-on-ticket system only barely works for their event. They have problems with scalpers and ticket counterfeiting (which includes name/photo counterfeiting) and with lines and wait times, despite having SEVEN fully staffed gates (highlighted with big blue stars on the event map pictured above) and a road infrastructure to support that (compared with a single gate/road infrastructure that Burning Man has available). Glastonbury also has a huge problem with scarcity, their event has been selling out quickly for years. Even with their system, every year there are groups of friends/campmates that are not all able to get the tickets they need.

Ticket Tiers is an interesting discussion. There are some great arguments on both sides of the 'no tiers' vs. 'keep the tiers' argument - and no matter what they did there would be a lot of complaining. In my own experience there have been times where, if I wasn't able to secure a first tier ticket I would not have been able to attend... and I've seen dozens of posts from people on ePlaya who are in the same situation - it would be unfortunate for them to not even have a chance. Sure, the chances were slim for people who could only afford to purchase at the lowest pricing tier (just like they have been in every year they've had tiered pricing), but at least there was a chance. However, a flat price would have made things the most fair for everyone who registered. There was a reduction in the number of tiers (from 5 to 3) which I think was a nice middle ground. It may very well be that a flat price for all tickets is the way forward, we'll see how that goes.

There's been a lot of speculation about that, with anything from random guesswork to crazy conspiracy theories. I don't believe it was scalpers - sure, some got through and are reselling above face value on other sites - but it's a really small number of tickets being offered compared to the 40,000 tickets just awarded. Taking a cursory look at StubHub, eBay, and a pro scalper site (Monday 6th of February), I found listings for 116 tickets to Burning Man. By comparison, the same sites had listings for 2,606 tickets for the Coachella Festival. Sure, Coachella has 4x more tickets in circulation (160K compared with the 40K awarded last week), but that's more than 20 times more tickets at the sites sampled.

I'd love to be proven wrong on this, but I don't believe they all went to hoarders either. They probably got some, but not the lion's share. If they did, there would likely be more public gloating and people would be having greater success landing tickets from campmates who got more than they needed. It is completely possible that a number of hoarders are reluctant to come forward in the wake of the uproar. Hopefully if that is the case then the secure ticket exchange will afford them an easy and anonymous way to unload their extras quickly, and keep them within the community.

I think new burners will make a very strong showing this year. After any year with good weather there's an increase in the numbers of new participants, and let's face it - 2011 was an amazing weather year. Add to it a bumper crop of incredible photos and videos from the event, including one that went completely viral and in three short weeks garnered over 1.1 million views. Seriously. Over 1.1 million. Beautifully and lovingly made, and invoking the very powerful magic of one Dr. Theodor Seuss Geisel. It was a runaway hit that nobody ever could have expected (pro video bloggers only dream of getting numbers like that), and a piece that was made from the heart and took Teddy Saunders and his collaborators many many months to make. He worked hard and he released it when he had it finished. It's unfortunate that the success of the video resulted in many more registrants and reduced odds of success for everybody involved (even Teddy, who commented that he was not successful in the drawing). We'll see how things shake out as time goes on.

It's disturbing to see people blaming newbies. Even though the current situation is difficult, Burning Man should be a radically inclusive thing - everyone has a chance. The vast majority of us were new to the event once, how would that have felt or where would we be if we had been told "no newbies allowed?" Any kind of sellout situation sucks, but excluding an entire group for any reason would just be terrible. New people bring freshness and excitement and energy to the table that should never be turned away, and I suspect that if we give them the chance the majority will turn out to be at least as amazing as others who have participated in Burning Man in the past. It's also worth pointing out that before Burning Man hit the limits of the BLM population cap, the event has doubled in size from the previous year six times (1987, 1989, 1990, 1994, 1995, and 1996). In those years at least half of the population of Burning Man were new to the event, and by most peoples' accounts it did not suck.

Keep moving forward. Those who got tickets - congratulations. Those who got extra - please do the right thing and keep them in the community. If you don't have a friend/campmate in need already, use the secure ticket exchange. Don't do business with scalpers - that's just feeding the bears and contributing to the problem, as well as seriously increasing your risk of getting burned (if the scalper pre-sells that ticket they won't get until June to a higher bidder before they can deliver it to you, or if they get 'found out' as a scalper and their ticket order gets canceled). Burners are a resourceful bunch. When a raging dust storm kicks up we don't go running home, we put on goggles and masks and turn the music up. There are several months left to get tickets worked out. Not only through the friends we know but through the ticket exchange, and through the 10,000 tickets slated to go on sale at the end of March (through an open sale, which should be a relief to those who feel confident they'd come out ahead under the old rules). That's nearly 20% of the total tickets - still not sold yet. No, there won't be enough tickets for everybody (that's what scarcity means), but there should be enough in play through the secondary sale and aftermarket that the majority of those who are determined to go will be able to find a ticket.

There may end up being a significant churn within camps (theme and non-theme), and a few may even implode. Burning Man has already taught all of us that we can build beautiful wonderful things and then destroy them - the next iteration will probably be even better. In my camp about half our known campmates have tickets, but I'm confident that the others who want to go will find something in the weeks and months ahead. We were planning on expanding anyways, so we were already planning to see some fresh faces. My advice from a camp management standpoint is to pass those reminders and that encouragement out to the core team. Then keep your hearts and minds open to welcoming in new people. My guess is there will probably be a lot of new people coming to parties or chiming in online about how they got tickets. Rather than complaining about them or giving them attitude, welcome them and give them the chance to help. Just like someone did for us when we joined the community.